SUNDAY AM, 7TH UPDATE: These official Friday, Saturday, and weekend numbers for North America are way worse than anyone expected. Every film tanked except Marvel’s The Avengers which keeps sucking
all the air out of the box office for the 3rd straight weekend. Demonstrating just how disastrous the new movies opened, audiences gave Universal’s Battleship only a ‘B’ CinemaScore, Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting a ‘B-’, and Paramount’s The Dictator a ‘C’. And yet none of the affected studio moguls expect to lose their jobs. At Universal, Peter Berg’s military vs aliens actioner did only John Carter-low grosses for high cost (which is why the star of both pics, Taylor Kitsch, will be asking “You want fries with that?” very shortly). But Battleship already made $230M internationally, thus mitigating its $209+ budget and advance bad buzz in North America. At Paramount, Sacha Baron Cohen’s Middle East spoof also is showing modest strength overseas to mitigate its much smaller $65M-$70M cost. And at Lionsgate, a financial partner put its production exposure under $30M which was cut almost in half by international presales for the high-profile cast including J-Lo and Cameron Diaz. ”Our risk on the film is therefore very low,” the studio boasted to me. Which just goes to show that creating crap rejected by domestic audiences comes with few consequences for those in charge — unless you’re at Disney where John Carter made one head roll. Meanwhile, Marvel’s The Avengers will become the highest grossing domestic release in Disney’s history. Joss Whedon’s superhero assembly is already the studio’s highest grossing film of all time globally, and will pass the $450M mark this weekend. It is currently the #6 film of all time globally, the #10 film of all time domestically, and the #9 film of all time internationally (not adjusted for higher ticket prices, premium 3D sales, or inflation). The latest foreign gross is $682.6M and domestic $460M for a global cume of $1.142.6M. Overall moviegoing this weekend is looking like $140M, which is -12% from last year.
Here’s the Top Ten (ranked by Friday grosses):
1. Marvel’s The Avengers (Disney) Week 3 [4,349 Runs] PG13 Friday $15.3M, Saturday $24M, Weekend $55.0M, Cume $450.0M
2. Battleship (Universal) NEW [3,690 Runs] PG13 Friday $9.0M, Saturday $10.0M, Weekend $25.3M
3. The Dictator (Paramount) NEW-Wed [3,008 Runs] R Friday $5.7M, Saturda $6.7M, Weekend $17.0M, Cume $24.0M
4. Dark Shadows (Warner Bros) Week 2 [3,755 Runs] PG13 Friday $3.7M, Saturday $5.1M, Weekend $12.5M (-58%), Cume $50.7M
5. What To Expect When You’re Expecting (Lionsg) NEW [3,021 Runs] PG13 Friday $3.8M, Saturday $4.1M, Weekend $10.3M
6. Best Exotic Marigold Hotel (Fox Searchlight) Week 3 [354 Runs] PG13 Friday $872K, Saturday $1.4M, Weekend $3.5M, Cume $8.5M
7. The Hunger Games (Lionsgate) Week 9 [2,064 Runs] Friday $820K, Saturday $1.3M, Weekend $2.8M, Cume $391.4M
8. Think Like A Man (Screen Gems/Sony) Week 5 [1,722 Runs] PG13 Friday $800K, Saturday $1.2M, Weekend $2.7M, Cume $85.9M
9. The Lucky One (Warner Bros) Week 5 [2,055 Runs] PG13 Friday $585K, Saturday $750K, Weekend $1.7M, Cume $56.9M
10. Pirates! Band Of Misfits (Aardman/Sony) Week 4 [1,840 Runs] PG Friday $340K, Saturday $700K, Weekend $1.6M, Cume $25.5M
FRIDAY 6:15 PM, 3RD UPDATE: Paramount claims that The Dictator will finish the domestic weekend with $15M and Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting with $12M. That’s still incredibly disappointing for both films. But at least Sacha Baron Cohen’s Middle East spoof is showing modest strength overseas: the international cume for Wednesday and Thursday is $10.1M from 17 territories. ”We are either a confirmed or projected #1 in all territories, with the exception of Denmark,” the studio emails me. Paramount is projecting a $30M hail from 29 territories this weekend for a global cume of $45M. And the pic cost between $65M and $70M depending on whom I believe.
FRIDAY 4:30 PM, 2ND UPDATE: My sources don’t see any dramatic upticks in early numbers – yet. What a disaster at the North American box office this early summer weekend with everything from today and a week ago tanking except for Marvel’s The Avengers which should make another $55M. Universal’s Battleship is stuck at $9M-$11M today and $30M (which is around the same meager amount where Warner Bros’ Dark Shadows debuted last weekend and is on life support now). Paramount’s The Dictator which opened weakly Wednesday is completely falling apart even for an ‘R’ rated movie with just $12M. And Lionsgate’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting is beating it with $15M. Hollywood is in a very dark mood today — and I’m finding that the movie moguls are not appreciating my humor when I ask, “Are your bags packed?”
FRIDAY 7:45 AM: Universal’s Battleship is “certain to be soft,” according to my studio sources. ‘There’s no indication it’s going to break out and do huge numbers.” It opened with only $420K midnights from 1,074 theaters: that’s weaker than Warner Bros’ underperforming Dark Shadows last weekend and even Disney’s notorious 2012 bomb John Carter. Universal cautions that “both of those films have a bigger ‘geek base’” whereas the strength of Peter Berg’s military vs aliens actioner is “that it’s the anti-geek, anti-midnight movie of all time”. What does this mean? That the studio is hoping the patriotic pic does well in flyover country. It already has made $220M internationally, thus mitigating its $209+ budget and advance bad buzz in North America where Marvel’s mega-juggernaut The Avengers from Disney is still sucking all the air out of the box office. Meanwhile, Paramount’s The Dictator from Sacha Baron Cohen continues not to rule box office: it made only $2.8M Thursday after opening weak on Wednesday for a 2-day total of $7M. Now Baron Cohen’s Middle East spoof may not even be the #1 comedy in the marketplace this weekend: the latest news is that Lionsgate says it’s What To Expect When You’re Expecting romantic comedy which wasn’t tracking suddenly ticked up Thursday. “We got a nice bump which could put us ahead of The Dictator for the three-day weekend and hopefully put our weekend into the high teens,” an exec tells me. ”Our P&A spend and production costs are even less than The Dictator – and our cast made it to the Oscars without offending AMPAS. Ha.”
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